AgileSD - fast, reliable system dynamics modelling
A short online course on how to build system-dynamics models using the 'AgileSD' process - fast, effective, reliable.
Simple principles to tackle complex problems
In every field of life, problems and opportunities feature complex challenges:
It takes time for things to build up - both good things, like money, friends, natural resources, education, and bad things, like debt, unemployment, waste and greenhouse gases.
Elements in "the system" depend on each other - getting a better job needs higher skills; cutting carbon emissions needs cheaper alternative power; declining habitats cuts wildlife ...
Feedback drives change, both for better or worse - more traffic needs more roads, which drives more traffic; cheaper alternative energy drives more capacity, which makes it cheaper ...
Thresholds drive tipping-points - work-pressure is OK until it drives staff to resign; rising temperatures trigger ice-melting; electric vehicles suddenly become affordable for millions ...
And intangible factors impact on all these mechanisms - mistrust makes us ignore good advice; understanding drives responsible behaviour; data improves the services we need ...
Models are useful for two main purposes:
... to solve a one-off challenge, like fixing poor service or fighting off a competitor
... to set up a continuing plan for a business or department
To get an idea of the full opportunity, we show how to build a model to plan a whole business. This needs to be simple and familiar - a new restaurant.
Our restaurant wants to sell meals and make profits, so:
... it must win and retain customers (!)
... offering a menu to attract them
... and hiring enough staff to serve them (but not too many!)
Follow our demonstrations to create a working model of how these items depend on each other to build a growing "machine" that drives sales and profits. (This is what spreadsheet models cannot do!)
Lessons in these classes ...
Welcome to "AgileSD"
Tell us about yourself
Get the slides ... !
Get the software ... or use others
System Dynamics for time-based challenges
The example for this course - cutting offences on public transport
Summary of the AgileSD approach
Get the slides for class 1
Start a new model
Set up the model time-scale
Create the performance objectives in the model
OPTIONAL: Chart a 'feared future' for the objective
ADVANCED: Time-steps, Resolution and 'dT'.
Get the slides for class 2
How Stocks behave
Add the Stock of Offenders, who drive the offences
Make the Stock act like a Variable - for now
Calculate how the Offenders Stock drives the offences outcome
Simple arithmetic - and the spreadsheet parallel
Doing more with the model at this stage ...
When correlation is meaningless
Get the slides for class 3
How to add an in-flow of new offenders
Demo : adding Flows to change the number of Offenders
An emerging theory of how the system works
Physical Stocks cannot go negative !!
Testing Scenarios
Sharing models with other people
Get the slides for class 4
Stocks (Officers) drive flow-rates (offenders stop)
Separate in- and out-flows
"Look up" how one item depends on another
Add a Look-up function for how more Officers cover more crime hotspots
Working out Reported offences
Offenders stopping, due to offences being caught
Get the slides for this class
What causes feedback - and what does it do?
Balancing feedback slows the fall in Offenders and offences
Reinforcing feedback that could drive growth of Offenders
Add intangible "public confidence" to increase offence-reporting
STILL following the AgileSD process
Assess strategies to cut offences with Scenario tests
Get the slides for this class
Why AgileSD works - and gives better results, faster.
More important Frameworks (1) - "Pipelines"
More important Frameworks (2) - Stock-attributes and the co-flow structure
More resources ...
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End-of-course survey